Primena AHP-a i Dongovog modela pri izračunavanju indeksa podložnosti terena za nastanak šumskih požara. Studija slučaja: naselja Crni vrh i Topli Do (Stara planina)

Application of AHP and Dong model in calculating forest fires suscepptability index. Case study: settlements Crni vrh and Topli Do (Stara mountain)

Authors

  • Natalija Jezdić Geografski fakultet, Univerzitet u Beogradu, Studentski trg 3/3, Beograd, Srbija

Keywords:

podložnost terena za nastanak šumskih požara, naselja Crni vrh i Topli Do, Park prirode Stara planina, Dongov model, AHP

Abstract

Područje istraživanja predstavlja analizu podložnosti terena za nastanak šumskih požara na području atara naselja Crni vrh sa površinom od 57.08 km2, kao i atara naselja Topli Do površine 96.57 km2. Naselja se nalaze u Parku prirode Stara planina na jugoistoku Republike Srbije. Granice atara oba naselja se prostiru na granici Republike Srbije sa Rebuplikom Bugarskom. Istraživano područje je međunarodno značajno radi sprečavanja prodora nastalih šumskih požara u ove dve države. Pri analizi rada korišćen je Dongov model sa indeksima: tip vegetacije (Vt), gustina vegetacije (Vd), nagib terena (S), ekspozicija padina (A), nadmorska visina (E), udaljenosti od puteva (Dr), naseljenih mesta (Ds) i udaljenost od poljoprivrednih površina (Df). Klasifikacijom pomenutih kriterijuma dodate su im odgovarajuće klase: veoma niska podložnost, niska podložnost, srednja podložnost, visoka podložnost i veoma visoka podložnost terena za nastanak šumskih požara. Korišćen je i AHP model pri poređenju relativnog značaja datih kriterijuma, nakon čega je izvršena komparacija oba modela. Prema metodologiji Dongovog modela, 24% naselja Crni vrh pripada klasi visoke podložnosti terena, dok naselje Topli Do karakteriše 16% u klasi visoke podložnosti. Prema AHP metodologiji, dobijeni rezultati se razlikuju. U naselju Crni vrh 50% teritorije je pod klasom visoke podložnosti, a u naselju Topli Do je pod tom klasom 43% područja.

The field of research represents suceptibility analysis of the terrain to forest fires in the area of the Crni vrh settlement with 57.08 km2, and the area of the Topli Do settlement with 96.57 km2. Both settlements are located in the Nature Park Stara mountain in the southeastern part of the Republic of Serbia. The borders of these settlements are located on the state border between Republic of Serbia with the Republic of Bulgaria. The research area is internationally important for preventing the breach of forest fires in both countries. In the work analysis the Dong model was used with the following indices: vegetation type (Vt), vegetation density (Vd), slope (S), aspect (A), elevation (E), distances from roads (Dr), from settlements (Ds) and distance from farmlands (Df). By classifying the mentioned criteria, the appropriate classes were added to them: very low susceptibility, low susceptibility, medium susceptibility, high susceptibility, very high susceptibility. The AHP model was also used to compare the relative importance of the criteria after which a comparison of both models was performed. According to the metodology of Dong model, 24% of the settlement Crni vrh is in class of high susceptibility, while settlement Topli Do is characterized by 16% in that class. According to AHP metodology, obtained results are diffrent. In the settlement Crni vrh 50% of the territory is in class of high susceptibility, and in settlement Topli Do 43% is in the same class.

Key words: susceptability of terrain to forest fires, settlements Crni vrh and Topli Do, Nature Park Stara mountain, Dong model, AHP.

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Published

2021-05-22

How to Cite

Jezdić, N. (2021). Primena AHP-a i Dongovog modela pri izračunavanju indeksa podložnosti terena za nastanak šumskih požara. Studija slučaja: naselja Crni vrh i Topli Do (Stara planina): Application of AHP and Dong model in calculating forest fires suscepptability index. Case study: settlements Crni vrh and Topli Do (Stara mountain). Zbornik Radova, 1(1), 1–13. Retrieved from http://zbornik.upravljanje-rizicima.edu.rs/index.php/d/article/view/1